In the end Hosni Mubarak didn't have to decide the difficult question of "should I stay or shoud I go?" himself, the army did it for him. In the case of the Egyptian people the situation is slighty different: the army presents them with the responsibility of voting YES or NO on constitutional amendments in a referendum this Saturday. And somehow this seems to be as much a choice between scylla and charybdis as faced by the protagonist of a great song by the Clash...
As mentioned in my blogpost on the dissolution of Amn IlDawla I had tonight attended a public panel discussion held at AUC, the American University Cairo. Under the headline „The Role of Political Parties in the Transitional Period“, the AUC's School of Global Affairs and Public Policy (GAPP) and the German Konrad-Adenauer Foundation (KAS) have assembled as speakers: Dr. Amr Hamzawy, Political Science Professor (Carnegie Center for International Peace, Beirut), Abu El Ela Madi (Founder of "Wasat-Party") and Dr. Essam El-Eryan (Spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood) with Dr. Mustapha Kamel El-Sayyed (Political Science Professor, AUC and Cairo University) serving as the moderator.
Of course the whole event was overshadowed by the upcoming referendum, and thus the role of political parties was discussed not in general but rather in reference to the constitutional amendments as well as the avisioned timeline for constitutional changes, presidential and parliamentary elections. But let me put those of you whose attention has been caught up by the dramatic events in Japan, Lybia and the Ivory Coast into the picture first: On Saturday, 19th March 2011 Egyptians are asked to cast their vote in a national referendum. The people have the choice of either approving of or rejetcing a set of constitutional amendments to the 1971 constitution. For those of you who read Arabic (and besides that for interested Egyptians), the government has set up a webpage to inform about the proposed changes and the wehereabouts of the referendum.
Yet, so far it is not clear what exactly will be the wording of the amendments (let me maybe repeat the above: the referendum will be hold on Saturday, 19 March 2011). Clear however is that the approximately 7 to 8 Millions of Egyptians living abroad will not be able to cast their vote. Most of the oppositional parties have already voiced their opposition to either the referendum in itself or the proposed amendments.
The arguments against accepting the constitution refer to several problematic issues: for many, the changes do not go far enough, in particular do they not limit the president's tremendous powers. For others sticking to the old constitution in itself is already a betrayal of the revolution as the revolution, the ousting of Mubarak, the transition of power to a military council has in effect already abrogated or annuled the consitution. (Or an „insult“ as Mohammed el Baradei puts it. )
More than the content of the amendments itself though, it is the army's timeline around the referendum which many individuals, parties and groups object to. As outlined by the army council, the schedule is as follows: referendum now, amended constiution in place straight after, parliamentary elections in June, presidential elections in September, creation/appointment of a constitutional council that drafts a new constiution if the parliament or the president wishes so.
As far as I have been following the conversations and debates, the pro-amendment camp's main argument for adopting the changes is that things have to move on. If they are kind, they point out that the amendments are only a tranistional solution and that the country is facing tremendous challenges and thus better should get going...if they want to make their point a bit stronger, they warn you that we have no time to loose because the economy is faltering and Israel is only waiting to intervene, and at some point they simply try to hammer a simply equation into peoples' heads: NO to the amendments = chaos in Egypt.
Ehm...somehow this chaos-equation move seems familiar...it rings a bell in my head...if it doesnt with you, maybe have your memory refreshed by a look at this article by the Guardian from February 4, 2011.
Also Amr Hamzawy, who opts for voting „NO“ on Saturday and demands a prolongued transitional period to allow the formation and establishment of new parties, pointed out today in his 20 minute speech that threatening the people into voting YES by evoking fear of chaos is kind of old-regime-style. And from the tenor of this post you can readily conclude that I as well belong to the anti-amendment camp. Instead, I favor a longer transitional period for drafting a new constitution and preparing parliamentary elections, as outlined in the conclusion of an op-ed in AlMasr AlYoum.
Yet, I was somehow calmed by today's panel discussion, where Amr Hamzawy and his opponents (in terms of the voting recommendation) all seemed eager to emphasize that no matter whether Saturday's outcome would be a YES or a NO, there was reason for optimism. Or as Abu El Ela Madi, founder of the Wasat party put it: „We have to be proud that there's gonna be a referendum and we don't know what the results are gonna be.“
Those parties which support the proposed amendments in essence are the Muslim Brotherhood and the remnants of the National Democratic Party, who's held the absolute (if not 99,9%) majority in the parliament for the last 1000 years. A lot of people are extremely worried that accepting the amendments now, and following on suite with early parliamentary elections will mainly benefit these two factions as they are the only ones who can rely on existing structures of securing support, reaching out to people in the countryside and the cities, recruiting campaigners and candidates, running successful large scale campaigns and last but not least mobilizing voters and securing seats in parliament.
From what I understood tonight, also the Wasat party, whose founder tonight vowed for a longer transition period, is going to support the amendments, thus being the first officially established party, not tainted by its linkages to the old regime, that does not ask its followers to vote „NO“ on Saturday. Besides the political parties many prominent individuals, in particular those politicians who are considered potential candidates for presidency have voiced their opinion on the constitutional referendum. And of course also the army has an opinion, although it does not express so directly (...as if there was really a need for this...):
In another estranging move the army has banned any demonstration on the day of the referendum, stating that “Whoever tries to disrupt the referendum process will be subjected to the laws of thuggery.” It is well worth remarking that this law has been issued only some days ago, allegedly to punish those thugs abusing the deteriorating security situation for committing crimes and creating unrest. The newly established and vaguely defined crime of thuggery can now be penalized with the capital punishment.
In this context the army portrays an intriguing understanding of democracy, stating that demonstrations are banned on Saturday and breaches prosecuted with reference to the thuggery-law, because „We aim to have a democratic and civilised voting process during that day.“ If they tell me which political theorist or philosophical thinker their definition of „democratic and civilised“ is based on, I am definitely gonna chose this guy's writings as topic for my final exams, I am utterly curious...and if I figure out I'll definitely forward that info to Mr Gaddafi, as I am pretty sure he can make use of it.
For those of you who rather than in the army's notions of democracy are interested in the ongoing debate and the upcoming referendum in Egypt, I recommend the following:
An overview-article by Salmah Shukralla titled "Will Egypt vote YES or NO?"
A very good and enlightening op-ed by Science Po PhD candidate
Soha Bayoumi, who explains her reasons for rejecting the constitutional amendments, referring in detail to the individual provisions as foreseen in the amendments
AlMasr AlYoum's summary of a debate on constitutional amendments and referendum, past Sunday at AUC
and if you enter „constitution“ to the search engines of Al Ahram or AlMAsr AlYoum you'll find plenty articles on the various parties', groups' and famous personalities' opinions.
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