So,
more than one year down from the "Revolution of January 25th",
many people have learned a lesson. Most importantly, revolutionaries
have learned that you really shouldn't congratulate yourself on your
achievements too early. The "old" regime has probably
learned a lesson how to deal with unwanted attempts at
democratisation more successfully.
In fact, since yesterday it seems
that the regime has provided us with the perfect blueprint of how to
abort a revolution: Wear the revolutionary forces down in small
fights over time, while at the same time maintaining the promise of a
transition of power following democratic principles. Prepare
everything for the handover of power, and make sure you keep all the
oppositional forces busily involved in that process. Then, few days
before the final (democratic) battle supposedly decides who obtains
presidential power, make sure you concentrate all powers in your
hands again by following 5 simple steps: 1) get the respected judges
are on your side, 2) issue a law-like decree that grants you
unlimited power to arrest people, 3) make the judges dissolve the
democratically elected parliament, so that legislative and
constitutional power wanders back into your hands again, 4) finally,
install the president of your choice, and 5) enjoy.
This
might not be a blueprint working in other countries (coz of course we
know how different they are, even if they belong to the Arab, Moslem,
African or short non-Western world), but it definitely proved
successful in Egypt. The second round for presidency is scheduled for
16th and 17th of June, so that is tomorrow and the day after. The
competitors in the run-off are the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed
Morsi, and a remnant of the old regime (of the "folool"),
Ahmed Shafiq. Earlier this week, "Justice Minister Adel Abdel
Hamid issued a decree (...) giving military intelligence officers the
power to arrest civilians until a new constitution is put in place"
(POMED, 13.06.2012). As "obstructing traffic" (which pretty
much equals "demonstration") is one of the "crimes"
that military personnel can arrest citizens for, the decree's effects
resemble those of the infamous "emergency law", which had
blurred the border between police, military, and judicial powers for
years until it was cancelled after the revolution.
Other than
undermining the rule of law, SCAF also regained legislative power
yesterday by a court ruling: the Supreme Constitutional Court ruled 6
month (!) after the parliamentary elections, that they were partially
conducted in unconstitutional ways, and thus the entire parliament
had to be dissolved. Apparently, this also affects the legitimacy of
the 100-men strong constituent assembly, which had been elected by
parliament two days ago. The assembly was charged with drafting a
constitution, given that the country's constitution was disbanded and
substituted by SCAF's constitutional declaration last year. In face
of the parliament's dissolution, SCAF announced it would appoint the
members of a new constitutional assembly today.
Effectively all this
means that SCAF controls the constitution-giving body and has
re-gained legislative power after the dissolution of the legislative
body. Above that, the military has the right to arrest people as it
pleases. Oh, and last but not least, the upcoming elections are
expected to make Shafiq the new President of Egypt. Shafiq used to be
Prime Minister under Mubarak. He has repeatedly shown his
condescension for revolutionaries and, actually, citizens in general.
Shafiq promised to crush further demonstrations after being elected
(maybe that is the reason why he made it to the run-off?) and all in
all, is as anti-revolutionary as you can get. He is going to be a
president, without a parliament, without a constitution and with the
military establishment on his side. I wonder whether Mubarak envies
him.
The
reaction of Egyptian public is not yet clear, the public outcry that
I would have expected yesterday did not happen. Indignation was
limited to the media and Twitter. All the people I randomly spoke to
in the streets approved of what had happened. Either because "Mubarak
was a good man", because "The Muslim Brothers want to
forbid tourism. They want to forbid drinking - but why do the
tourists come here?", because "Parliament didn't do
anything", because "I don't like Ikhwan (the MB)."
If
you want to learn more about the bleak situation the Egyptian
revolution finds itself in, I can recommend the following articles:
Egyptian
court rulings seen as reversal of last year’s ‘revolution’
By Nancy A. Youssef, McClatchy Newspapers, Thursday 14 June 2012,
Egypt, a country lost in transition
Progress from autocracy to democracy has been complicated by tensions, divisions and violence at every turn
By Ian Black, The Guardian, Thursday 14 June 2012,
By Nancy A. Youssef, McClatchy Newspapers, Thursday 14 June 2012,
Egypt, a country lost in transition
Progress from autocracy to democracy has been complicated by tensions, divisions and violence at every turn
By Ian Black, The Guardian, Thursday 14 June 2012,
By
Nathan J. Brown, Foreign Policy, Thursday 14 June 2012,
By
David D Kirkpatrick, New York Times, Thursday 14 June 2012,
What to know on Egypt's new political drama
By SARAH EL DEEB, AP, Thursday 14 June 2012,
By SARAH EL DEEB, AP, Thursday 14 June 2012,
By
AlArabiya, Thursday 14 June 2012,
I just found another, in my opinion very balanced article, that refutes any talk of a long-planned well-carried out conspiracy, but still attributes intention to SCAF:
ReplyDeletehttp://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/06/14/egypts_so_called_transition_canceled